AAPG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ascentage Pharma Group has demonstrated significant commercial success with its key product, Olverembatinib, achieving RMB 217.4 million (approximately US$30.3 million) in sales during the first half of 2025, representing a substantial 93% year-over-year growth. Furthermore, the company has expanded its market presence considerably, with formulary coverage increasing to over 295 hospitals and the network of pharmacies and distributors growing by approximately 17% compared to the previous year. Additionally, the broader market context is favorable, as evidenced by the strong performance of a China Biotech ETF, which has gained roughly 58% year-to-date, surpassing major indices, indicating a favorable environment for biotech development and investment.

The negative outlook on Ascentage Pharma Group's stock is primarily driven by the persistent downward pressure on margins and revenue growth caused by aggressive pricing cycles and the volume-based procurement program, which could adversely affect the company's profitability. Furthermore, the group's failure to meet primary endpoints in critical studies raises concerns about its ability to expand globally and scale its innovative therapies effectively. Additionally, slower market adoption in China and the inability to differentiate its product offerings from competitors further diminish the prospects for growth and sustainable revenue generation.