Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Acadia Healthcare Co Inc is well-positioned for growth in the behavioral health sector, as evidenced by impressive organic growth driven by bed expansions and de novo developments, alongside a strong capacity for mergers and acquisitions due to robust capitalization. The company's long-term growth targets suggest anticipated revenue increases of 7-9% and EBITDA growth of 8-10% from 2026, supported by potential operational improvements at underperforming facilities. Additionally, a projected net increase in state-directed Medicaid payments, combined with the expectation of volume growth in the low-to-mid single digits, reinforces a favorable outlook for Acadia's financial performance.

Acadia Healthcare Co Inc is facing a negative outlook primarily due to a projected persistent volume softness impacting its FY25 EBITDA, which is anticipated to be 10% lower than current estimates. Additionally, the company's revised long-term target EBITDA margin is expected to decline from 22.5% in 2024 to around 21.7% by 2028, indicating deteriorating profitability. This adjustment, coupled with a significant drop in the enterprise multiple—down to approximately 6.6x forward EBITDA from a long-term average just under 12x—drives concerns about the company's financial stability and growth prospects.