Autodesk (ADSK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Autodesk is projected to achieve total revenue of $1,804.7 million for Q3, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by robust performance in the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) segment, which increased by 20% year-over-year. This positive trend is further supported by healthy billing growth of 21% year-over-year, as well as the successful adoption of a new direct billing model which has enhanced reported revenues by an estimated 5-6% for FY26. Additionally, the company's total remaining performance obligations (RPO) reached $7.36 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential alongside increased activity in the manufacturing sector, as indicated by a rise in the US Manufacturing PMI.

The financial outlook for Autodesk appears negative due to a combination of declining architecture firm billings and anticipated challenges in adapting to a new transaction model, which is expected to significantly weaken by FY27. Additionally, increased competition, uncertainties related to leadership transitions, and potential difficulties in executing go-to-market strategies further exacerbate the company's risks, especially with weaker-than-expected sales and margin growth. Lastly, the continued high vacancy rates in U.S. offices and subdued commercial design activity through 2026 may contribute to persistent underperformance in Autodesk's relevant market segments.