Addus HomeCare (ADUS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Addus HomeCare Corp is positioned for a positive financial outlook, primarily driven by robust growth in its Hospice segment, which is projected to expand at the high end of 5-7% due to strong rate increases and improved admissions. Additionally, the company has experienced a 5.6% year-over-year increase in hospice revenue per patient day and anticipates a stable growth rate of 3-5% in Personal Care Services revenue for 2025, supported by the normalization of admissions and efficient management of its case load. Furthermore, updated revenue estimates reflect significant upward revisions in consensus estimates, signaling an overall optimistic outlook for Addus HomeCare's financial performance as it explores various merger and acquisition opportunities to enhance its service offerings.

Addus HomeCare Corp's negative outlook is primarily influenced by a decline in its Home Health segment, which experienced a 3.2% year-over-year decrease in volumes and a 6.2% drop in new admissions, contributing to revenues falling 2.7% below expectations. Additionally, the anticipated decrease in average hourly rates within its Personal Care Services segment and an overall compression in gross margins, projected at approximately 200 basis points, highlight ongoing challenges in cost management and revenue generation. Furthermore, lowered adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2025 to 2027 indicate a deteriorating financial forecast, with growth expectations being revised downward, signaling potential ongoing underperformance in the company's financial health.