Agilon Health (AGL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Agilon Health Inc demonstrated substantial growth with total revenue increasing by 44.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, exceeding estimates by 0.2%. The company's Medicare Advantage membership grew by 36% year-over-year to reach 527,000, supported by positive trends in the same geography, suggesting strong demand for its services. Additionally, improvements in medical cost data tracking and operational efficiencies, leading to lower-than-expected general and administrative costs, indicate a favorable trajectory for future performance.

Agilon Health Inc. has faced significant visibility issues impacting its financial forecasts, particularly in the second half of the year, with 4Q24 results falling short due to lower-than-expected medical margins and the anticipation of exit from an unprofitable partnership. The company's adjusted EBITDA for 4Q24 was $(84.0) million, underperforming estimates and reflecting a negative margin of (5.5%), compounded by elevated Part D and supplemental benefits expenses, resulting in substantial headwinds for the overall financial performance. Additionally, the forecast for ACO REACH patients indicates a decline, with expectations for patient numbers reducing by 20.5% to 12.9% quarter-over-quarter, further raising concerns about slow growth prospects and the sustainability of Agilon's business model.