ALC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alcon's financial performance indicates a positive trajectory, highlighted by a year-over-year increase in contact lens market share in the fourth quarter of 2024. Ocular Health sales reached $416 million, reflecting a 2% growth, while consumables recorded a more robust 7% growth with sales amounting to $738 million during the same period. Additionally, Alcon's core operating margin improved to 20.1%, marking a 120 basis points increase from the previous year, which surpassed consensus expectations.

The financial outlook for Alcon is tempered by concerns over potential revenue stagnation due to market share losses in both the intraocular lens (IOL) and contact lens segments, leading to weaker than expected performance relative to growth expectations. This situation is further exacerbated by a bear case scenario projecting flat to low-single-digit revenue growth accompanied by limited operating expense leverage, thereby suppressing expected earnings per share (EPS) growth. Additionally, although the Vision Care segment saw an increase in operating margins, the Surgical segment experienced a decline, indicating uneven performance that reflects broader struggles within key product categories.