ALEX Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alexander & Baldwin Inc. has demonstrated strong financial performance, with same-store NOI growth exceeding expectations and an improved forecast for 2025, now projected between 3.4% and 3.8% due to an increase in occupancy rates, which stand at 95.6%. The company’s proactive land monetization strategy, coupled with ongoing developments and leasing commitments, is enhancing revenue potential, while high barriers to entry in the market support robust same-property trends. Additionally, the strategic focus on streamlined operations and reduced general and administrative expenses may positively impact the bottom line, further contributing to a favorable financial outlook.

Alexander & Baldwin Inc faces a negative outlook primarily due to geographic concentration risk, which could affect retail sales and personal consumption trends, thereby jeopardizing tenant financial performance and cash flows. Additionally, rising interest rates pose a significant threat by potentially diluting earnings through maturing debt, diminishing returns from new investments, and causing expanded cap rates that may lead to reduced property valuations. The company's reliance on tourism and a transient local population further exacerbates this risk, negatively influencing local retail sales trends amid increasing competition.