ALEX Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alexander & Baldwin has demonstrated strong same-store net operating income (NOI) growth, exceeding expectations, which led management to raise its 2025 same-store NOI growth forecast by 80 basis points to a range of 3.4-3.8%. The company's occupancy rate improved significantly to 95.6%, marking an increase of 140 basis points year-over-year, indicating robust demand for its commercial real estate assets. Additionally, effective management of overhead expenses, with general and administrative costs trending below previous levels, is expected to enhance the company's bottom-line performance moving forward.

Alexander & Baldwin faces significant risks due to geographic concentration, as its retail operations in Hawaii could be adversely affected by fluctuations in local consumer spending and tourism, leading to potential declines in tenant financial performance and overall cash flows. Rising interest rates represent a multifaceted threat; they could lead to earnings dilution from maturing debt, decreased return potential on new investments, and expanded cap rates that would lower property valuations. Furthermore, the competitive landscape of discounted REITs complicates market positioning, reducing attractiveness and complicating future growth prospects.