AMBP Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ardagh Metal Packaging is experiencing positive growth trends in both Brazil and North America, with Brazil volumes increasing by 34% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and North America volumes rising 8% year-over-year, supported by new customer contracts and favorable product mix. The company's outlook for 2024 suggests low single-digit shipment growth, anticipated improvements in fixed cost absorption, and a stabilization of pricing, indicating overall EBITDA growth potential despite heightened competition and energy costs. Demand has shown resilience at the start of 2024, fueled by customers adjusting their orders to take advantage of declining prices, which positions Ardagh Metal Packaging favorably for future performance.

Ardagh Metal Packaging has experienced a 10% year-over-year volume decline in Europe, primarily due to accelerated destocking, which has impacted its shipments and overall performance. The company faces multiple downside risks, including lower-than-expected prices, rising input costs, and moderating beverage demand trends, all of which contribute to the negative outlook. Additionally, challenges such as increased competition, heightened operational costs from new plant start-ups, and weaker free cash flow have further strained the company's financial standing, raising concerns about its dividend coverage and capital return trends.