APEI Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Public Education Inc. demonstrated solid financial performance in its recent reports, with revenues increasing by 11.9% year-over-year, reflecting robust growth across its segments, particularly due to the accelerating campus-based healthcare enrollments, which grew by 12.7%. The Rasmussen University Segment reported a revenue surge of 15.6%, driven by a significant 10.4% rise in total student enrollment, successfully exceeding previous estimates and expectations. Additionally, the overall student enrollment across the Hondros College of Nursing segment rose 19.4%, while segment EBITDA expanded by 19.1%, indicating strong operational efficiency and profitability improvements.

American Public Education Inc. is projected to experience a significant decline in total net course registrations for the fourth quarter, with expectations of between 65,000-74,400 registrations, reflecting a year-over-year drop of up to 33% primarily due to the government shutdown and the temporary suspension of the TA program. Despite a slight overall revenue increase forecast for 2025, the guidance suggests adjusted EBITDA and diluted EPS will fall short of prior estimates, indicating weaker profit margins and potential challenges in achieving past performance levels. Additionally, management’s fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $150.0-153.5 million represents a year-over-year decline and is below consensus estimates, further contributing to a negative outlook for the stock.