AWI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Armstrong World Industries Inc. reported a 3.3% increase in sales within its Mineral Fiber segment, primarily attributed to a 4% year-over-year increase in average unit value (AUV), driven by favorable pricing and improvements in product mix. The adjusted EBITDA margin for this segment improved by approximately 200 basis points year-over-year due to favorable AUV and reduced manufacturing costs, although this was slightly offset by increased SG&A expenses. Looking ahead, management forecasts a 5% sales gain for the Mineral Fiber segment in the upcoming year, with the EBITDA margin expected to remain strong at around 41%, reflecting a notable expansion from previous results.

Armstrong World Industries Inc. is facing a challenging non-residential operating environment, with a flat outlook for its Mineral Fiber (MF) volume in 2025, which constitutes 67% of its sales. The company's earnings per share (EPS) estimate for 2025 has been revised downward to $7.05 from $7.16, while its EBITDA estimate has been adjusted slightly upward to $536 million, indicating pressure on profitability despite slight improvements in pricing. Additionally, projected low-single-digit input inflation is anticipated due to increased costs for raw materials and freight, contributing to a negative outlook for the company's performance.