Bally's (BALY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ballys is well positioned for value creation because the £2.2bn enterprise value implies an attractive ~6.3x FY25 EBITDA multiple and ~5.5x on a pro forma basis, while management expects at least £180m/€210m of annual cost and capex synergies within two years for only c.£25m of cash costs. The acquisition would add roughly £2bn of revenue, materially expanding scale in the UK and improving resilience in a consolidating market where larger operators are better able to absorb regulatory and tax pressures. It also fast-tracks geographic diversification into Italy, Spain, Romania, and Denmark, giving Ballys immediate exposure to regulated international markets and a stronger long-term growth profile.

Ballys is viewed cautiously because its Q2 results were only mixed, with total net revenues merely in line while EBITDAR missed estimates by 3% due to Intralot B2C tax-related headwinds, and the filing also introduced “going concern” risk language that signals financing stress. The company’s outlook is further weakened by ongoing liquidity pressure, sizable leverage, limited visibility to near-term deleveraging, and project execution risk tied to its New York, Chicago, and Las Vegas developments. Model revisions reinforce that weakness, with 2026/27E Adj. EBITDAR cut by 11%/8% and 26E/27E EBITDAR lowered by 3%/7%, reflecting softer margins, topline pressure, and international FX and regulatory risks.