BancFirst (BANF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

BancFirst is a strong financial services company, with a diverse portfolio including multiple business units, traditional banking products, and specialty product business units. With its recent acquisition of Spirit BankCorp, the company is expanding its presence in the Tulsa market and expects cost savings of 15-20%. Third quarter trends remain positive, with growth in noninterest bearing deposits, stable NIM, and flat-to-modestly higher loan balances. While NPA increased due to two former AOBK branches, provision expense was lower and ACL increased slightly. Overall, BancFirst reported a solid quarter and maintains a low-single digit loan growth outlook. Analysts are maintaining a Neutral rating and $125 price target, with projected accretion to 2027 EPS and a 2.3x multiple on 2026E TBV.

BancFirst is facing potential risks, including a potential deterioration in asset quality and a lack of loan growth caused by a potential impact of the energy sector on regional economic growth. Additionally, the company's earnings could be negatively affected by its less profitable asset mix, as demonstrated by its reported 1Q26 EPS which missed both analyst estimates and the Street mean. The company's modest end-of-period loan growth and strong deposit growth, while promising, may not be enough to overcome these potential challenges and turn the stock's outlook around.