Blue Bird (BLBD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Blue Bird Corp has demonstrated robust financial performance, with bus revenue for FY4Q25 reaching approximately $384 million, representing a year-over-year increase of about 19%, largely due to increased deliveries and average selling prices (ASPs). The company's EBITDA margins have also shown significant improvement, climbing to around 17% for the quarter, up 190 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 480 basis points year-over-year, indicating strong operational efficiency and profitability. Furthermore, with expectations of a high-single-digit revenue growth rate in the near term and an anticipated increase in EBITDA margins to 16% by FY2027, the company's focus on transitioning to alternative-powered buses suggests promising prospects for sustained financial improvement and cash flow generation.

Blue Bird Corp is experiencing significant pressure on its financial performance, as indicated by a decline in backlog units of approximately 37% year-over-year, which may hinder future sales growth. Additionally, projections for EBITDA margins are expected to decrease from approximately 13.6% in FY2024 to a mid- to high-single-digit range by FY2026, reflecting broader operational challenges and increased competition in the electric vehicle bus market. Coupled with labor wage pressures and potential public-sector budget constraints, these factors contribute to a pessimistic outlook for the company's stock performance.