Carlsmed Inc (CARL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carlsmed Inc. has demonstrated robust financial performance, highlighted by a 98% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter, reaching $13.1 million, supported by an increased number of surgeon users, which grew by over 70% year-over-year. The company's ability to maintain a strong gross margin of 75.9%, exceeding forecasts due to reduced manufacturing costs and inventory expenses, further underscores its financial health. Looking ahead, Carlsmed's strong utilization trends and anticipated market expansion into cervical procedures position the company for sustained revenue growth, with an estimated compound annual growth rate of over 50% through 2028.

Carlsmed Inc's financial outlook appears negative due to projected discrepancies in revenue estimates, with FY26 cervical revenue anticipated at $2.9 million, underperforming compared to initial projections of $3.4 million. The company faces significant risks, including slower adoption of its aprevo technology by surgeons, a stagnating overall spine market, and potential challenges from larger competitors with more extensive portfolios. Additionally, there are concerns about deteriorating average selling prices (ASP), increased operating expenses, and adverse reimbursement changes impacting hospital economics and pricing strategies, further contributing to its expected EBITDA loss of $30.7 million.