Carnival (CCL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carnival's financial performance indicates a robust positive outlook as demonstrated by an increase in Return on Capital (ROC) from 8.40% to 10.41% over the last twelve months. Net sales revenue reached a record $26.23 billion, reflecting a 7.14% year-over-year increase, while Economic Profit (EP) surged by nearly 96%, showcasing the company's effective cost management and revenue generation capabilities. Furthermore, the cruise industry's consistent growth, coupled with an anticipated increase in net sales revenue and operating profit, positions Carnival favorably within a thriving market focused on experiential travel.

Carnival's significant reduction in new ship deliveries, with only one set for 2025 and none for 2026, results in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of less than 2% through 2028, trailing the industry average of approximately 6%. Despite successfully reducing net debt-to-EBITDA to 3.6x, concerns surrounding rising fuel costs, regulatory changes, and the long-term impact of COVID-19 present substantial risks to the company's financial stability and its ability to meet growth targets. Additionally, growing apprehension regarding pricing and demand erosion in 2026, coupled with increased promotional activity, casts doubt on the company's future revenue potential.