CareDx (CDNA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

CareDx Inc. demonstrated strong financial performance in Q3, achieving a 21% top-line growth primarily driven by a 13% increase in volume and a 5% rise in average selling prices (ASPs). The company recorded its highest cash collections in October, aligning with its strategic expansion of the sales force by approximately 50%, which is expected to further enhance volumes over the coming quarters. Additionally, CareDx achieved GAAP net income positivity and raised both top and bottom line guidance, indicating robust operational momentum and positive outlook for future growth.

CareDx Inc. has reported Q3'25 volumes of 50,000, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase but falling short of the expected 51,000, attributing this shortfall to seasonal trends and highlighting that surveillance testing grew approximately 20% year-over-year. The company is facing pressure on its stock due to concerns surrounding the potential impact of the upcoming CMS final LCD decision, which is expected to affect only 4-8% of its business, coupled with a valuation that currently stands at just 1.4x the projected 2026 revenue, significantly below historical averages. Additionally, CareDx's growth strategy is threatened by management instability over the past three years and uncertainty regarding the successful commercialization of further diagnostic solutions, which are critical for its future expansion.