Comcast (CMCSA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Comcast's strong outlook is underpinned by robust performance in several key business segments, with media revenues rising by 4% year-over-year, excluding Olympic impacts, and Peacock achieving mid-teen revenue growth driven by advertising and distribution. Additionally, the content and experiences segment significantly contributed to overall results, showcasing a 19% increase in theme park revenue and 13% growth in EBITDA, enhanced by the launch of the Epic Universe. Looking forward, Comcast is expected to benefit from upcoming programming investments, including a strong film slate and NBA content, which should bolster advertising revenue despite initial costs associated with sports rights.

The analysis highlights a negative outlook for Comcast's stock primarily due to anticipated declines in broadband Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), which is projected to decrease by 100 basis points, significantly lower than initial estimates, as the company opts out of typical rate increases. Additionally, the financial strain is evidenced by a 3.7% year-over-year decline in EBITDA for Q3 and expected further declines, with 4Q25 EBITDA estimated to drop 4.1%, contributing to an overall projected EBITDA reduction of 3.5% for 2026. Furthermore, increased operating and marketing expenses related to the company's strategic shifts, coupled with flat or negative growth in key segments, exacerbates the ongoing financial pressures faced by Comcast.