Coursera (COUR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Coursera Inc. has demonstrated a robust performance in its Consumer segment, which contributed 67.1% of total revenue and experienced a year-over-year growth of 12.6%, reaching $130.3 million, and exceeding expectations by 4.2%. The company's strategic initiatives, including optimized geographic pricing and enhanced language offerings, have attracted a strong influx of learners, culminating in an 18% increase in global learners year-over-year to 191 million. Furthermore, management has raised full-year revenue guidance to between $750 million and $754 million, surpassing previous forecasts and consensus estimates while maintaining an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.0%.

Coursera's financial outlook appears negative due to several critical factors, including a year-over-year decline in gross margin, which contracted by 50 basis points to 55.6%, alongside a decrease of 5.2% in average revenue per customer. The company's net retention rate (NRR) also slipped from 93% to 89% in the Enterprise segment, highlighting challenges in maintaining customer relationships amidst increased macroeconomic uncertainty. Additionally, expectations for a seasonal revenue drop-off of approximately 1.4% in 4Q25, coupled with unchanged guidance for adjusted EBITDA margins at 8%, suggest that profitability will remain elusive, further supporting a valuation below the low end of its historical peer-group range.