CVSA Stock Forecast & Price Target

Covista is viewed favorably because Chamberlain returned to year-over-year enrollment growth one quarter early, with enrollment up 0.5% to 40.8k and evidence of sustained reacceleration from double-digit application growth and normalized conversion rates. Walden remains the largest revenue engine and the company’s domestic base is benefiting from favorable healthcare and veterinary demand, helping drive third-quarter total revenue up 5% to $487M, adjusted EBITDA to $128M, and adjusted EPS to $1.98. The outlook also improves as management raised revenue guidance to $1.93B-$1.945B while holding adjusted EBITDA margin expansion near 100 bps, supported by fixed-cost leverage, campus expansion, and reduced concern around execution issues.

Covista is viewed with a more cautious stance because much of the expected Chamberlain re-acceleration is already reflected in the shares, leaving less room for further multiple expansion after the stock’s 22% rise versus the S&P’s 16% and peers’ 6% decline. Its premium valuation has expanded to about 10x CY26E consensus EBITDA from roughly 9x, but the broader online education group still faces AI-related student acquisition pressure that could keep sector multiples below 5-year averages and limit a return toward the prior 12x peak. Although Walden, Chamberlain, and the healthcare-heavy mix support relative resilience, roughly 65% of revenue and 70% of EBITDA come from online students, and new loan caps effective 7/1 add risk to Med/Vet demand, making the risk/reward look more balanced.