DAWN Stock Forecast & Price Target

Day One Biopharmaceuticals has demonstrated a robust financial performance with reported total revenues of $131.2 million for the year, supported by increased prescription volumes and improved gross-to-net revenue, culminating in OJEMDA net product sales of $57.2 million. The company's ongoing clinical trials, particularly the FIREFLY-2 trial for tovorafenib in pediatric low-grade glioma patients, signal a commitment to advancing treatment options for underserved demographics, which may enhance future revenue growth. Furthermore, the notable increase in new patient prescriptions, from 619 in Q3 to 780 in Q4, alongside the establishment of Ojemda as a standard of care demonstrates growing prescriber confidence and a positive trajectory for continued sales growth.

Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc. faces a negative outlook primarily due to increased financial risks stemming from a lower estimated gross-to-net impact, revised to 12–15% following the CMS classification of OJEMDA as a pediatric-only therapy, which has affected revenue expectations. The company reported significant net losses of $65.7 million in Q4 and $95.5 million for FY24, along with substantial non-cash stock-based compensation, raising concerns about its financial sustainability and cash management. Additionally, the potential for clinical and regulatory failures associated with their lead product candidate, DAY101, compounded by the risk of not achieving projected sales, poses further challenges to the company's growth prospects.