Brinker International (EAT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brinker International is supported by a still-underpenetrated Chili’s growth runway, with more than 300 U.S. trade areas identified and domestic openings set to ramp to 30 annually by FY29, enabling 2%-3% unit growth while preserving attractive 18%-20% cash-on-cash returns on roughly $5 million to $6 million of investment. Its outlook is further strengthened by a substantial menu and operating opportunity, as only about 60% of the menu has been upgraded, weekly guests remain about 19% below the historical peak, and each additional 100 guests per week can add roughly 2% to comp sales. The company’s financial framework also looks compelling, targeting 4%-6% annual revenue growth, double-digit EPS growth through FY29, 20-40 bps of annual restaurant-margin expansion, and share repurchases of 3%-5% of outstanding shares.

Brinker International is viewed negatively because Chili’s growth story appears to be nearing a tougher phase, with management’s FY29 plan for 30 openings, 2%-3% system unit growth, 4%-6% sales growth, and double-digit EPS growth still falling short of elevated expectations. The analyst believes same-store sales are likely to normalize after extraordinary FY25 growth, making it harder for the market to justify a higher multiple if comps turn negative and investors conclude demand was pulled forward rather than structurally reset higher. Execution risk is also rising as the company layers in menu innovation, North of 6, reimages, and future unit growth while margins face pressure from food investment, labor, advertising, remodels, tariffs, and a weak Maggiano’s business that remains negative comping.