e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

e.l.f. Beauty has demonstrated robust sales growth, with a notable 91% increase in average sales during the first half of fiscal year 2025, indicating strong demand for its products. The company maintains a leading position in the foundation and face category while expanding its market share, notably achieving a record 9% share in the eye segment in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. Additionally, the expectation of increased international door additions in the second half of fiscal 2026, coupled with favorable year-over-year comparisons, suggests that e.l.f. Beauty is well-positioned for continued growth in the coming year.

e.l.f. Beauty's stock outlook is impacted by a continued decline in its Cheek product category, which remains under pressure, showing a decline in market share that has not worsened beyond its recent low of 31%. Management faces a challenging business environment as they contend with tough year-over-year comparisons stemming from a previously successful product launch and declining demand post-holiday promotions and external factors. Furthermore, reduced sales growth estimates for FY27, from 16.8% to 16.6% year-over-year, alongside unexpected lower margins, contribute to a negative financial outlook for the company.