Enphase Energy (ENPH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Enphase Energy has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with Q4 revenues reaching $343 million—an increase driven by a notable 21% sequential uptick in US sell-through as consumers rushed to make purchases ahead of the 25D expiration. The company is also poised for continued growth, evidenced by expectations of increased revenue in Q2, improvement in commercial sales, and expanding market share in the energy storage sector as it launches upgraded products on three continents. Additionally, Enphase's leadership in microinverter technology and ability to navigate tariff impacts while improving gross margins further solidifies a strong outlook for sustained financial performance.

Enphase Energy experienced a notable decline in revenue, particularly in the U.S., attributed to a reduction in safe harbor revenue totaling approximately $51 million, alongside a year-over-year decrease of about 29% in European revenue and a 13% decline in the U.S. quarter-over-quarter. The company's gross margin guidance indicates a potential dip, with GAAP gross margins projected at around 41.5%, reflecting a 510 basis point impact from reciprocal tariffs and a decrease relative to prior expectations. Furthermore, concerns about inventory management and potential demand fluctuations could introduce further revenue and margin volatility, emphasizing a cautious outlook for the company.