FirstCash Holdings (FCFS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

FirstCash Holdings Inc. has demonstrated significant growth in its financial metrics, with Q2 originations increasing approximately 34%, driven by both new store openings and expanded merchant relationships, excluding furniture retailers. Additionally, the company reported a 31% growth in pawn receivables in its legacy First Cash stores in Latin America, accompanied by a remarkable 59% increase in gross profit during the same period. Given the prevailing economic conditions, with an increasing proportion of unbanked and underbanked households, FirstCash Holdings is well-positioned to benefit from heightened demand for pawn services amidst potential recessionary pressures.

FirstCash Holdings Inc. is facing a challenging outlook as net revenue is projected to stagnate for the full year, contrasting sharply with previous expectations of a decline of 6% to 8%, while segment earnings are anticipated to modestly decrease in 2026 despite a return to growth in loan originations. The company's Retail POS payment solutions segment experienced a notable 13% year-over-year decline in gross transaction volume in Q3, largely attributed to bankruptcies in the retail sector, with further projected revenue declines of 15% to 20% year-over-year in Q4 due to diminishing run-off revenues. Additionally, an overall drop in financial literacy among adults, alongside increasing competition in the pawn and loan sectors, poses a significant threat to FirstCash's revenue and earnings stability.