FERG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ferguson Enterprises is poised for continued growth, with projected FY'26 total sales of $31.9 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase driven by a combination of pricing and volume growth. The company has demonstrated operational strength, highlighted by its F4Q25 gross margin improving to 31.7%, surpassing expectations and benefiting from effective operational execution and supplier price timing. Notably, Ferguson's robust performance in the non-residential market, with revenues increasing approximately 15%, signals sustained demand in commercial and civil infrastructure sectors, reinforcing the company's positive outlook.

Ferguson Enterprises has reported a 1% decline in HVAC revenues, attributed to persistent affordability challenges that have led customers to favor repair and servicing over replacement, alongside difficult year-over-year comparisons. The company's residential end market revenues were flat year-over-year, mirroring the muted performance in housing starts and repair, maintenance, and improvement (RMI) spending, which reflects broader economic concerns. Furthermore, the firm faces multiple risks that could negatively impact future performance, including potential deflation in key product categories, heightened competitive pressure, and the likelihood of a recession adversely affecting the housing market.