GPI Stock Forecast & Price Target

Group 1 Automotive's strong financial performance is underscored by a substantial revenue total of $19.9 billion in 2024, bolstered by the recent acquisition of Inchcape UK, which is expected to add approximately $2.7 billion in annual revenue. The company's strategic focus on aftersales and finance and insurance (F&I) segments has resulted in notable growth, with aftersales and F&I revenues increasing by 12% and 11%, respectively, contributing to an operating leverage of approximately 300 basis points. Furthermore, the firm's recent restructuring initiatives have led to margin improvements, as evidenced by a record performance in the first quarter of 2025 with a 6.5% increase in sales.

Group 1 Automotive is facing significant challenges, as its adjusted EBITDA is projected to decline by 5%, resulting in a total of $990 million, amid a backdrop of industry demand drop-offs exceeding 20% from peak levels. Additionally, the company reported an 11.4% decrease in adjusted EPS, which fell to $39.21, alongside a decrease in EBITDA to $914 million, reflecting an overall margin contraction of 4.6% year-over-year. Despite some strengths in same-store performance relative to peers, these declining financial metrics indicate underlying vulnerabilities in Group 1's operational efficiency and market demand.