GPK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Graphic Packaging Holding Co is positively positioned for growth, fueled by its tuck-in acquisition strategy, which is expected to enhance volume and expand into new growth categories and regions. The company anticipates productivity enhancements to yield annual gains of $50–70 million, leading to projected EBITDA growth of 5–6%, free cash flow growth of 10%, and double-digit EPS growth, despite flat volume trends. Additionally, the potential improvement in paperboard pricing dynamics and the ability to offset rising commodity input costs through strategic pricing and mix optimization further reinforce its favorable market outlook.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co. has revised its EBITDA forecasts downward for FY25 and FY26, indicating a shift from $405 million to $380 million and from $1.485 billion to $1.435 billion, driven by continued weakness in food volumes and persistent price/cost pressures. Recent sales data suggests a declining trend, with 4-week and 12-week unit sales showing slight decreases, and expectations for lower volume performance in the second half of the fiscal year further exacerbate the negative outlook. Additionally, challenges such as oversupply in bleached paperboard and increased capital expenditures are expected to prolong deleveraging efforts, impacting the company's ability to deliver significant free cash flow, which could diminish overall financial stability.