Groupon (GRPN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Groupon Inc is demonstrating a robust operational performance, evidenced by its ability to grow bookings, effectively leverage operating costs, and convert revenue into cash, which analysts anticipate will further accelerate. The company's strategic positioning amid current market trends has led to an increased confidence in its financial outlook, including significant projected growth in billing, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA for the latter half of 2025. Notably, Groupon's stock has exhibited strong performance, more than doubling in value from mid-March to late April, despite a general decline in the NASDAQ composite during the same timeframe.

Groupon Inc. faces several challenges that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, including uncertainty regarding expected revenue recovery and potential issues with cash flow that could complicate debt refinancing. Management's guidance for billings and revenue indicates anticipated declines of 2.5% to 5.0% and 5% to 7.5%, respectively, along with a significant decrease in adjusted EBITDA, projected to be between $7 million and $10 million. Additionally, rising marketing and SG&A expenses may not decline as expected, further exacerbating the company's financial pressures despite an earlier rights offering aimed at mitigating refinancing risks.