HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

HCA Healthcare demonstrated robust financial performance in the third quarter, recording a same-facility revenue increase of 9.2% year-over-year, driven by a 2.4% growth in adjusted admissions and a notable rise in inpatient revenue per admission, up 7.1% year-over-year. The organization experienced positive trends in its payer mix, with significant contributions from Medicare and commercial lines, resulting in a year-over-year increase in same-facility adjusted admissions and outpatient surgeries, marking an encouraging turnaround. Additionally, HCA raised its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $15.25 billion to $15.65 billion, reflecting strong core performance and better-than-expected supplemental payment revenues, which collectively bolster the outlook for the company's financial health.

HCA Healthcare's total debt to LTM EBITDA ratio remains relatively high at 2.9x as of the third quarter of 2025, which raises concerns regarding the company's leverage position amidst a challenging financial landscape. The firm's projected EBITDA growth for 2026 has been tempered to 3.9%, falling below the lower threshold of its long-term growth outlook, influenced by external uncertainties. Additionally, the company's decision to lower its targeted leverage range and adjust future enterprise multiples indicates a cautious approach to financial management, which may hinder investor confidence.