HNVR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hanover Bancorp is expected to experience a rebound in loan growth, with revised projections indicating increases to 4.6% for 2025 and 5.1% for 2026, driven primarily by commercial and industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate (CRE) lending. Adjustments to the financial model suggest a larger overall balance sheet and anticipated growth in C&I and CRE during the latter half of the year, despite lower net interest margin (NIM) estimates and fee income. Additionally, the significant increase in municipal deposits, now accounting for approximately 33% of total deposits, indicates strong depositor confidence and enhances the bank's funding base.

The outlook for Hanover Bancorp's stock is negatively impacted by a downward revision of return on assets (ROA) forecasts for 2026, which have decreased from approximately 0.94% to 0.85%. Additionally, anticipated weak performance in SBA gain on sale is expected to contribute to a decline in quarterly revenues, projected to fall to around $1.7 million to $1.8 million in the latter half of the year. Furthermore, operating earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 14% and 6%, respectively, primarily due to diminishing net interest margins (NIM) and lower fee income.