Lyft (LYFT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Lyft exhibited strong growth in key performance metrics during the third quarter, achieving record gross bookings, revenue, active riders, and total rides, all aligning with consensus expectations. Active riders surged by 18% year-over-year, reaching 28.7 million, while total rides performed remarkably well, hitting an all-time high of 249 million, reflecting a 15% increase year-over-year. Furthermore, Lyft's outlook for fiscal year 2026 suggests continued acceleration in gross bookings and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (AEBITDA) margin expansion, positioning the company favorably for future financial performance.

Lyft's stock outlook is negatively impacted by a year-over-year decline in ride frequency per active rider, falling from 9.0 to 8.7, and a corresponding 2% decrease in ride volume during the second quarter. The company faces significant downside risks including execution mishaps, heightened competition from market leader Uber, unproven business models, and escalating insurance costs that threaten profitability. Additionally, consensus estimates indicate that Lyft is projected to fall short by approximately $1.5 billion of its gross bookings goal for 2027, along with a nearly $175 million deficit in its EBITDA target, reflecting broader concerns regarding financial performance and market traction.