Marriott (MAR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Marriott International's robust growth outlook is underpinned by strong performance in international markets, where over half of the approximately 610,000 rooms in the end-of-2025 pipeline are located, allowing for higher RevPAR growth compared to the U.S. and Canada. The company has also increased its EBITDA multiple for managed and franchised fees to 18x, reflecting better-than-expected net room growth projections for 2026, alongside a worldwide RevPAR increase of 1.9% driven by advanced average daily rates (ADR). Furthermore, positive signs of leisure and group demand indicate potential for continued revenue enhancements, bolstered by expectations of macroeconomic improvements in the U.S. that could invigorate transient corporate travel and convention attendance.

Marriott International's guidance for 2026 indicates a decline in Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) and Net Rooms Growth (NRG), aligning closely with existing market expectations, which reflects potential stagnation in its revenue growth trajectory. The company faces significant headwinds from geopolitical, inflationary, and policy-related risks that are likely to dampen lodging demand, suggesting weakened operational performance. Additionally, Marriott's valuation appears high when compared to other franchise businesses, particularly against EBITDA multiples and anticipated EBITDA growth, further supporting a cautious outlook amid the threats of a deep macroeconomic recession.