Malibu Boats (MBUU) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Malibu Boats has demonstrated substantial financial growth, with 4Q25 net sales for its Malibu segment rising by 114.0% year-over-year to $80.3 million and unit volumes increasing by 78.7%. The company has also seen a notable improvement in gross margin, which reached 15.8%, up 790 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to lower promotional activities and an increased offering of higher margin models. Additionally, the significant increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $19.7 million, compared to a previous loss, suggests a robust recovery and positive operational performance.

Malibu Boats is facing a negative outlook due to a series of concerning financial indicators, including a projected sales decline of roughly 10% year-over-year for the second quarter and an expected adjusted EBITDA margin significantly lower than market estimates, ranging from 8% to 9% compared to the Street’s estimate of 7.9%. Additionally, the company's Saltwater Fishing segment saw unit volumes decrease by 9.3% year-over-year, exemplifying a broader decline in demand for recreational boating and related discretionary purchases, worsened by adverse economic conditions. The company's guidance anticipates retail activity to decline by a mid-high single-digit percentage in FY26, raising concerns about dealer inventory levels and the overall health of the boating market amid rising interest rates and potential consumer confidence degradation.