MongoDB (MDB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MongoDB is projected to achieve strong financial growth, with a Q3 consensus revenue estimate of $593 million, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase and strong performance in its MongoDB Atlas offering, expected to generate $455 million, up 25% year-over-year. The company's fiscal year 2026 revenue is anticipated to grow by 18% to $2.362 billion, followed by a further 17% increase to $2.763 billion in FY27, indicating a solid upward trajectory. Furthermore, the company has demonstrated resilience with significant growth in customer adoption and cloud consumption, contributing to positive investor sentiment and a favorable market position.

MongoDB's financial outlook reflects concerns regarding a projected topline revenue of only $587 million to $592 million, indicating a modest year-over-year growth of approximately 11.5% at the midpoint, alongside a significant decline in non-Atlas revenue. The anticipated margin compression, exacerbated by increased R&D and marketing expenses leading to a projected non-GAAP operating margin of about 11.5%, raises red flags about the company's profitability. Additionally, competition from NewSQL vendors and the stickiness of Oracle databases present substantial risks, suggesting that MongoDB may encounter challenges in maintaining its market share amidst evolving technological preferences.