MongoDB (MDB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MongoDB has demonstrated strong growth in its customer base, adding approximately 1,900 new customers in the fourth quarter, which represents a 14% year-over-year increase, bringing the total to over 54,500 customers. The company is positioned favorably in the rapidly expanding non-relational database market, projected by Gartner to grow at a 22% compound annual growth rate, reaching $36 billion by 2025. Additionally, MongoDB's revenue from its fully managed offering, Atlas, increased by 24% year-over-year, and the operating margins exceeded consensus expectations, indicating improved efficiency and profitability.

MongoDB's financial outlook includes a notable decline in anticipated non-GAAP operating margins, projected to fall to 9-10% from 15% in the previous fiscal year, primarily due to the non-recurrence of high-margin multiyear license revenue and rising R&D and marketing expenses. The company's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) expansion rate also decreased to 118% from 120%, reflecting challenges from lower-quality workload acquisitions and the cyclical nature of the metric, with management forecasting a significant drop in Enterprise Advanced sales and a high-single-digit percentage decline in revenue for FY26. Furthermore, total revenue guidance for FY26 is set at $2.24-$2.28 billion, which is below market consensus, indicating pressures on revenue growth amidst elevated operational costs and declining subscription metrics.