Altria (MO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Altria Group has maintained a strong market position, with its Marlboro brand capturing a dominant 42% share of the U.S. cigarette market as of 2024, underscoring its leadership in tobacco products. The oral tobacco segment, particularly through the On! brand, has shown significant growth, achieving a total retail share of 8.8%, marking a year-over-year expansion of 180 basis points. Moreover, Altria's proactive investments in its oral products are anticipated to enhance topline growth and margin profiles, contributing to a more favorable profit mix in the coming years.

Altria Group faces significant financial challenges due to a weakening macroeconomic environment, which is adversely affecting demand elasticity and segment margins across its tobacco and vaping products. The decline in cigarette consumption is evident, with less than 15% of consumers aged 18 and over reporting recent usage, indicating a persistent downward trend in market demand. Additionally, the performance of legacy smokeless tobacco brands is negatively impacting Altria's overall sales growth, as the new On! products have not offset the slowdown in other segments.