ModivCare (MODV) Stock Forecast & Price Target

ModivCare Inc. demonstrated a positive trajectory with a 192 basis point increase in utilization of its non-emergency medical transportation (NEMT) services, reaching 10.8% during the reported quarter. Additionally, the personal care services (PCS) segment achieved a top-line revenue growth of 3.0%, supported by a 3.5% increase in revenue per hour, resulting in improved overall margins of 5.7% compared to the previous year. The adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 65 basis points year-over-year, reaching 9.4%, highlighting the company's focus on operational efficiency and anticipated benefits from a growing fee-for-service contracting mix.

ModivCare Inc. is facing significant financial challenges, highlighted by a projected top-line decline of approximately 6.7% in its NEMT business for 2025, primarily due to a $200 million revenue headwind from contract attrition. The company's RPM segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 million, falling short of expectations and reflecting softened margins of around 35.4%. Additionally, the remote monitoring revenue experienced a decline of 5.3%, alongside a 7.4% decrease in the Matrix business revenue, contributing to ongoing financial instability.