Mosaic (MOS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Mosaic's positive outlook is supported by an upgraded potash valuation multiple, reflecting a balanced market that promotes steady long-term growth, with projected modest increases in potash sales volumes for 2026. The company's phosphate operations are expected to benefit from reliability enhancements and equipment upgrades, which are anticipated to lead to sustained improvements in production rates moving forward. Additionally, the expansion of potash operations at the Esterhazy mine is set to enhance production capacity while simultaneously lowering costs, positioning Mosaic favorably for future profitability.

Mosaic faces significant challenges in its Fertilizantes division, particularly in Brazil, where adverse farming conditions and high sulfur costs are forecasted to hinder phosphate production through at least the first half of 2026, leading to a projected decline in year-over-year EBITDA. The company's recent Q4 sales volumes fell below expectations, attributed to weak conditions in both the phosphate market and North American potash sales, prompting anticipated downward revisions to consensus estimates. Furthermore, ongoing reliability issues at key production facilities have raised credibility concerns among investors, contributing to an overall negative outlook on the company's stock performance.