
Mercury Systems (MRCY) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Mercury Systems (MRCY) Analyst Ratings
Bulls say
Mercury Systems Inc. reported a remarkable increase in EBITDA margins, which rose by 1,091% year-over-year to reach 13.1%, alongside a significant surge in free cash flow (FCF) that increased by 356% year-over-year to $119 million. The company's strong topline growth was primarily driven by a 31% year-over-year increase in sales of Modules and Sub-assembly products, totaling $246 million in FY25, supported by an 11% two-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in this product segment. Furthermore, Mercury's share-of-wallet footprint in the defense electronics market has expanded through strategic inorganic growth, positioning the company for further margin expansion and additional topline growth opportunities.
Bears say
Mercury Systems Inc has experienced a significant decline in quarterly bookings, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -9.6% projected from Q3/23 through Q3/25, leading to approximately $200 million in Q3/25. This downturn has adversely affected the company’s book-to-bill ratio, which stood at 0.95x for Q3/25 and 1.10x on a trailing twelve-month (TTM) basis, indicating that bookings are not keeping pace with revenue. Furthermore, Mercury Systems lags behind its small- and mid-cap defense peers, trading at 31.5x FY26 consensus EBITDA, which is 35.4% lower than the peer group average of 48.8x, reflecting a lack of investor confidence in the company's future performance.
This aggregate rating is based on analysts' research of Mercury Systems and is not a guaranteed prediction by Public.com or investment advice.
Mercury Systems (MRCY) Analyst Forecast & Price Prediction
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