MZTI Stock Forecast & Price Target

The Marzetti is supported by a durable margin expansion story, with 4QF26 gross profit rising 7.4% year over year to a record $114.0 million and adjusted EBITDA up to $71.9 million, or 15.5% of net sales, as the company posted a 12th straight quarter of gross margin improvement. Its outlook is strengthened by roughly 100 bps of expected FY27 gross margin expansion, driven by productivity savings, commodity risk management, and Bachan’s accretion, while net leverage remained modest at about 0.6x TTM adjusted EBITDA with $25.1 million of cash and $199.3 million of debt. Although Cyclospora creates a near-term 1QF27 sales headwind, the business still benefits from strong brand positions, innovation, and balanced growth across Retail and Foodservice, including share gains in frozen bakery and national account wins.

The Marzetti is exposed to meaningful customer concentration risk, with FY26 sales to Chick-fil-A’s Foodservice segment at 30% and Walmart representing 18% of consolidated net sales, so weakness at either account could materially pressure results. Its heavy reliance on open-market raw ingredients leaves earnings vulnerable to sustained inflation, while recent labor shortages and higher labor costs suggest margin compression could persist. In addition, production is partially dependent on single-site and third-party manufacturing, and prior health and food-safety claims increase the risk that operational disruptions or reputational damage could further undermine performance.