Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. is positioned for potential growth driven by an expanding patient base, particularly with the confirmed congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) diagnosis which has increased by 3,000 patients since 2018 in the U.S., enhancing the market for its product ALKINDI. The company reported a non-GAAP net earnings per share of approximately $1.69 in 4Q23, supported by increased volume, strong compliance, and improved gross-to-net dynamics, although competitive factors and payer dynamics present challenges. Management maintains a positive outlook for continued growth of its flagship product INGREZZA, with significant potential in treating tardive dyskinesia, backed by the potential of expanding antipsychotic use and an ongoing commitment to educate healthcare providers to improve diagnosis and treatment rates.

Neurocrine Biosciences has revised its revenue guidance for Ingrezza in FY25 to a range of $2.5-2.6 billion, significantly lower than previous estimates and reflecting a total revenue assumption decrease from $2.846 billion to $2.648 billion due to challenges in payer dynamics and increased competition. The company's 4Q24 Ingrezza sales of approximately $615 million were slightly below consensus estimates and indicated a growth rate that is not robust, with a notable flat quarter-over-quarter performance and only 21% year-over-year growth. Additionally, the anticipated modest growth in Ingrezza sales, coupled with elevated R&D and SG&A expenses, raises concerns about the sustainability of profitability and the overall financial health of the company.