National CineMedia (NCMI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

National CineMedia Inc is positioned to benefit from a resurgence in box office attendance, which is expected to enhance advertiser engagement and lead to increased ad bookings starting in Q3 2025. The company has improved its advertising targeting capabilities and optimization, particularly for local campaigns, which will likely facilitate market share gains over the next two years as advertisers shift their budgets from traditional media to more targeted avenues like cinema. Additionally, with commitments to return cash to shareholders through dividends and repurchase programs, along with the recently favorable valuation following a share price retreat, National CineMedia has a promising financial outlook.

National CineMedia Inc is facing a challenging financial outlook, with fourth quarter revenue guidance projected at $91.0-98.0 million, which is below expectations and reflects only a 10% growth at the midpoint. Anticipated headwinds from the AMC renewal are expected to negatively impact EBITDA margins by 150-250 basis points, despite hopes that inventory harmonization will provide a revenue offset. Additionally, while overall attendance is expected to rise significantly by 30% year-over-year, the decline in per attendee revenue by 20% and a weaker film slate have contributed to revenues trending toward the lower end of guidance.