Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nasdaq reported a notable ~17% year-over-year increase in Index revenue, largely driven by a ~25% rise in average Exchange-Traded Products (ETP) Assets Under Management (AUM), totaling approximately $663 billion in the quarter. The Capital Access Platform segment displayed resilience with a ~6% year-over-year growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), buoyed by healthy performance in Data and Listings, as well as Workflow Solutions, indicating a favorable outlook as the capital markets environment is expected to improve. Additionally, Nasdaq demonstrated strong operational efficiency, evidenced by a decline in its gross leverage ratio to 3.2x—surpassing previous milestones ahead of schedule—coupled with robust free cash flow generation that facilitated the repayment of $400 million in upcoming bond maturities.

The negative outlook on Nasdaq's stock is primarily attributed to a projected approximately 10% reduction in FY26E EPS due to a slow recovery in capital markets, particularly affecting IPO activity and the growth of the Adenza segment. Additionally, various risks impede a positive performance, including continued subdued IPO markets, challenges in integrating recent acquisitions, and potential regulatory changes that could further reduce trading volumes. The overall environment of regulatory uncertainty, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, adds to the pressures on Nasdaq's trading operations and market performance.