NXST Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nexstar Media Group's stock outlook remains favorable due to a substantial year-over-year EBITDA increase of 40%, reaching $628 million, driven by significant political advertising spending and stable retransmission revenues. The firm is projected to generate revenues of $4.9 billion, reinforced by anticipated growth in core ad revenues and an upcoming resurgence in distribution revenue following the renewal of carriage agreements. Additionally, management has highlighted audience growth attributable to the return of sports programming, which is expected to further bolster ad revenue trends as the market improves.

Nexstar Media Group is facing a challenging financial outlook, with expectations of flat net retransmission and distribution revenues in 2025 due to a decrease in retransmission renewals and a declining pay-TV subscriber base. Additionally, the advertising environment remains weak, evidenced by a 9.2% year-over-year decline in non-political ad revenues, including digital advertisements, which raises concerns about the firm's revenue-generating capabilities. Despite some support from lower SG&A expenses and strong political spending in the election year, the company’s fourth-quarter earnings per share fell short of expectations primarily due to an impairment charge and an elevated tax rate, contributing to a cautious view on its future profitability.