NEXTracker Inc (NXT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nextracker has demonstrated a positive financial outlook by increasing its FY26 revenue guidance by approximately 1.5%, now projecting revenues between $3.275 billion and $3.4785 billion, alongside an increased EBITDA forecast of $775 million to $815 million, reflecting a 2% uptick. The company anticipates an impressive compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 5% for tracker revenue and a remarkable 40% for non-tracker revenue through FY30, indicating strong market demand and diversification in its product offerings. Furthermore, with a backlog nearing $5 billion, Nextracker is well-positioned for sustained growth and operational expansion, bolstered by its manufacturing capabilities and status as an IRA beneficiary.

The financial outlook for Nextracker, as indicated by management’s guidance for fiscal year 2027, shows anticipated revenue that misses previous estimates by approximately 3% to 6%, which raises concerns among analysts regarding the company's growth potential. Additionally, while adjusted free cash flow projections for FY'27 are notably strong, the forecasted adjusted EBITDA for FY'30 demonstrates a decrease of around 13% from prior consensus, suggesting underlying profitability issues amidst an environment of increasing competition. Furthermore, the expected decline in demand by over 20% and the potential for pricing pressure create further uncertainties that could adversely impact Nextracker's market position and financial stability.