Nextpower Inc (NXT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nextpower is supported by record backlog above $6B, with management expecting 85–90% conversion over the next eight quarters, which provides unusually strong visibility into future revenue despite a softer near-term margin reset. Its appeal also comes from a widening platform mix: non-tracker products contributed about 22% of revenue, storage generated roughly $100MM in its first consolidated quarter, and recent acquisitions are lifting FY2028 revenue and adj. EPS to $5.08B and $5.66, respectively. With about $1B of cash, no debt, and a leadership position in global trackers across more than 40 countries, the company has both balance-sheet flexibility and multiple growth levers to compound earnings.

Nextpower is facing a tougher earnings setup as management guided to weaker 2H margins, with adj. EBITDA margin expected to be 400–500 bps below 1H’s 23.6% and 3Q margin 100–200 bps below 4Q, driving estimates down to about $1.0B of revenue and $183MM of adj. EBITDA. The company’s profitability is being squeezed by higher freight, diesel, logistics and steel costs, plus product mix and ramp expenses tied to newer businesses, while some legacy contracts still expose it to inflation before pricing fully resets. Risk is amplified by heavy U.S. concentration—77% of FY2026 revenue came from the U.S.—along with execution risk from roughly 10 acquisitions in 18 months, policy sensitivity around 45X/ITC credits, and intensifying competition in BESS and power conversion.