ODFL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Old Dominion Freight Line demonstrated solid financial performance with a 4.7% year-over-year increase in revenue per hundredweight in the third quarter and a 3.4% increase in the second quarter, reflecting its strong pricing power and attractive value proposition. The company is effectively leveraging its operational efficiencies, as evidenced by the sequential improvement in its operating ratio, which increased by 30 basis points compared to the prior quarter despite a year-over-year decline. Additionally, with high excess capacity levels nearing 30% and a projected improvement in end-market conditions, Old Dominion is well-positioned to capitalize on cost leverage moving forward.

Old Dominion Freight Line has experienced significant declines in key operational metrics, with shipments per day decreasing 7.9% year-over-year in the third quarter and showing a persistent downward trend across the year, including a 9.3% decline in 2Q25. Revenue metrics also reflect a troubling trajectory, as reported revenue per day fell by 5.1% year-over-year in July and continued to decline in October, correlating with a decrease of 11.6% in tons per day. Additionally, the average weight per shipment has declined by 2.1% year-over-year, suggesting weakening demand and indicating potential challenges in maintaining profitability moving forward.