Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Olaplex Holdings Inc. is forecasting net sales of $426.0 million for the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a modest year-over-year increase of 0.8%, with a notable expectation of high single-digit growth in Q4, driven by professional channel engagement during holiday events. The company's direct-to-consumer channel has shown strong performance, representing 36.2% of sales this quarter, an increase from 32.8% in the same period last year. Furthermore, international markets continue to exhibit solid growth, with net sales increasing approximately 2% year-to-date, while adjusted EBITDA is projected to rise to $89.8 million, demonstrating a margin of 21.3%.

Olaplex Holdings Inc. experienced a decline in specialty retail sales, which dropped 13.5% year-over-year, contributing to a year-to-date sales decrease of 6.8%, indicating challenges in maintaining revenue streams despite initial signs of improvement from product innovation. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin is forecasted to reduce significantly by over 1,340 basis points, reflecting broader operating margin pressure that is anticipated to impact financial stability in the upcoming quarters. Additionally, the outlook for high single-digit sales declines year-over-year in Q3, compounded by decreased gross margins, suggests ongoing difficulties in optimizing sell-through strategies and retail execution that could hinder overall growth.