ONON Stock Forecast & Price Target

On Holding is attractive because it pairs premium brand momentum with an unusually long runway for double-digit growth, supported by management’s 3-year roadmap that calls for high-teens revenue CAGR and at least CHF 5.6 billion in FY29 revenue. Its earnings outlook is also strengthening, with gross margins expected to stay at least 65% and adjusted EBITDA margin rising to at least 22%, aided by DTC expansion toward 50% of mix, more than doubling the store fleet, and deeper wholesale penetration. The company’s growth remains anchored in Run while newer categories like Sneakers and Apparel, plus expansion into Golf and Global Football, should broaden demand and reduce dependence on any single channel or region.

On Holding is vulnerable to a sharp rerating if its growth narrative cools, because its lofty valuation depends on sustained premium execution and continued brand momentum. The bear case centers on revenue growth slowing to sub-20% in FY26 and FY27, then potentially slipping into the single digits, while margin upside stalls beyond 2026 as investment is reduced but not enough to offset weaker demand. Additional pressure could come from a more promotional retail backdrop, lower full-price selling, slower DTC demand, and new tariffs, which could keep gross margin expansion below 150 bps in '26 and hurt profitability.