QBTS Stock Forecast & Price Target

D-Wave Quantum Inc. has demonstrated strong financial metrics, particularly with a notable gross margin improvement to 93.6% from 73% quarter-over-quarter, indicating the company's ability to deliver higher profitability on system sales. The company's quarterly performance is off to a strong start, having booked $12 million in 4Q, contributing to a year-over-year increase in operational expenses attributed to investments in go-to-market strategies and R&D to drive future growth. Additionally, upward revisions in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2025 and 2026 reflect positive sentiment regarding the company's expanding revenue streams from hardware, Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS), and professional services.

D-Wave Quantum Inc. faces significant challenges as its quantum computing-as-a-service (QCaaS) revenue declined by 12% year-over-year, comprising only 31% of total revenues, indicating potential instability in its revenue streams. Furthermore, delays in the development of gate-model technology could hinder the company's competitiveness against both established and emerging players, limiting its ability to diversify beyond annealing-based optimization. The broader uncertainty surrounding the quantum computing sector and the risks of transitioning customers from proof-of-concept to full deployment suggest that revenue generation and profitability timelines may extend significantly, adversely affecting valuations and investor returns.