Roblox (RBLX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Roblox's platform, which boasts approximately 85 million daily active users, has demonstrated robust growth metrics, including a year-over-year increase in revenue of over 20% and a 23.5% rise in bookings for fiscal year 2024. The company has also reported a significant expansion in its AEBITDA margin by over 600 basis points, alongside a substantial 54% increase in free cash flow, reaching $121 million. Additionally, the top-performing creators on the platform have seen remarkable revenue gains, with the top 100 studios averaging $6 million—up 500% since 2019—highlighting the platform's diverse revenue-generating potential.

Roblox reported Q4 2024 bookings of $1,362 million, falling short of the $1,373 million consensus estimate by 1%, and the full-year bookings midpoint was $35 million below the consensus of $5,285 million. Additionally, the company experienced a significant downturn in console bookings, with Q4 bookings of $150 million, which was a 5.1% shortfall from the $158 million consensus estimate, largely affected by strong year-over-year comparisons due to previous product launches. The guidance for Q1 2025 reflects the anticipation of early-quarter momentum but anticipates a challenging year-over-year comparison due to timing discrepancies involving the Easter holiday, contributing to an overall negative outlook on the company's performance.