Rubrik Inc (RBRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Rubrik Inc. reported a robust 36% year-over-year growth in Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), reaching $1.252 billion, which exceeded market expectations of $1.230 billion. The company demonstrated strong client acquisition, with an increase in the number of customers spending over $100,000 in ARR to 2,505, up from 2,381 in the previous period, indicating growing traction with enterprise clients. Additionally, Rubrik added approximately $71 million in net new subscription ARR, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase and consistent subscription net revenue retention over 120%, underscoring its strengthening position in the cyber resilience market.

Rubrik Inc's financial outlook reflects a concerning trend with forecasted FY26 earnings per share (EPS) ranging between ($0.50) and ($0.44), indicating continued losses despite being better than market expectations of ($0.97). Additionally, while the free cash flow projection of $145.0 million to $155.0 million surpasses the Street's estimate of $73.7 million, it raises questions about the sustainability of such growth in the context of overall profitability. Moreover, the subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) contribution margin of approximately 7.0%, although an improvement over the prior guidance, highlights challenges in maintaining robust profit margins as the company balances growth investments.